Mapping the probability of Forest fire in the Mediterranean region of Türkiye using the GIS-based fuzzy-AHP method

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dc.authorid0000-0001-6558-9029
dc.authorid0000-0003-1800-4926
dc.authorid0000-0001-6558-9029
dc.authorid0000-0003-1413-0036
dc.authorid0000-0003-0532-0890
dc.contributor.authorUcar, Zennure
dc.contributor.authorGuney, Coskun Okan
dc.contributor.authorAkay, Abdullah E.
dc.contributor.authorBilici, Ebru
dc.contributor.authorErkan, Nesat
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-08T15:15:34Z
dc.date.available2026-02-08T15:15:34Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentBursa Teknik Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractForest fires have increased in frequency, intensity, and extent significantly worldwide due to climate change and human activities, particularly in the Mediterranean region. Fire-prone areas should be determined primarily to take precautions against forest fires and reduce their ecological, economic, and social impact. This study aimed to determine the spatial distribution of forest fire probability for the Antalya Regional Directorate of Forestry (RDF), highly vulnerable to forest fires. The forest fire probability map was generated using the GIS-based Fuzzy-AHP method, prioritizing decision criteria, including stand characteristics, topographic features, meteorological parameters, and proximity to anthropogenic structures. The results indicated that the most important factors influencing the fire were tree species, development stage, and proximity to road networks. The generated map showed that 45.82% of the forests in Antalya RDF were in the very high class, while 15.82% were in the high-level class. The fire probability map, validated using the Area Under Curve (AUC) method, offered promising and acceptable results above 0.7. The Fuzzy-AHP method, when integrated with GIS techniques, effectively predicts fire probability levels in fire-sensitive forests. This method will empower fire managers to develop and implement strategies that enhance forest fire resilience by predicting areas with high fire probability.
dc.description.sponsorshipThe Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkiye [TUBITAK] [2210309]
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was supported by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkiye [TUBITAK, Grant number: 2210309].
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/10807039.2025.2451146
dc.identifier.endpage259
dc.identifier.issn1080-7039
dc.identifier.issn1549-7860
dc.identifier.issue1-2
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-86000384972
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage234
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1080/10807039.2025.2451146
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12885/5855
dc.identifier.volume31
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001401779100001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ3
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherTaylor & Francis Inc
dc.relation.ispartofHuman and Ecological Risk Assessment
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzWOS_KA_20260207
dc.subjectMulti-Criteria Decision Analysis
dc.subjectfire probability map
dc.subjectclimate action
dc.subjectsustainable cities and communities
dc.subjectlife on land
dc.titleMapping the probability of Forest fire in the Mediterranean region of Türkiye using the GIS-based fuzzy-AHP method
dc.typeArticle

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