Mapping the probability of Forest fire in the Mediterranean region of Türkiye using the GIS-based fuzzy-AHP method

Abstract

Forest fires have increased in frequency, intensity, and extent significantly worldwide due to climate change and human activities, particularly in the Mediterranean region. Fire-prone areas should be determined primarily to take precautions against forest fires and reduce their ecological, economic, and social impact. This study aimed to determine the spatial distribution of forest fire probability for the Antalya Regional Directorate of Forestry (RDF), highly vulnerable to forest fires. The forest fire probability map was generated using the GIS-based Fuzzy-AHP method, prioritizing decision criteria, including stand characteristics, topographic features, meteorological parameters, and proximity to anthropogenic structures. The results indicated that the most important factors influencing the fire were tree species, development stage, and proximity to road networks. The generated map showed that 45.82% of the forests in Antalya RDF were in the very high class, while 15.82% were in the high-level class. The fire probability map, validated using the Area Under Curve (AUC) method, offered promising and acceptable results above 0.7. The Fuzzy-AHP method, when integrated with GIS techniques, effectively predicts fire probability levels in fire-sensitive forests. This method will empower fire managers to develop and implement strategies that enhance forest fire resilience by predicting areas with high fire probability.