The impact of oil supply surprises on maritime transport: a temporal and sectoral analysis

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dc.authorid0000-0002-2684-184X
dc.contributor.authorTarkun, Savas
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-08T15:14:56Z
dc.date.available2026-02-08T15:14:56Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentBursa Teknik Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThis study investigates how oil supply surprises affect maritime transport across time and sectors. Using the K & auml;nzig (Am Econ Rev 11(4):1092-1125, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1257/AER.20190964) approach, we identify shocks from OPEC announcements and examine their effects on shipping indices through the Barun & iacute;k and K & rcaron;ehl & iacute;k (J Financ Econom 16(2):271-296, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nby001) frequency connectedness model, Gabauer and Gupta's (Econ Lett 171:63-71, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.07.007) external connectedness framework, and impulse response analysis. Results show that oil shocks affect tanker indices (BDTI, BCTI) more than dry bulk (BDI). In the medium term, spillovers reach up to 0.33% for BCTI and 0.19% for BDTI, but only 0.05% for BDI. Brent-based shocks transmit over 5.4% of external information during crisis periods. Impulse responses confirm that shock effects are short-lived and economically minor (0.0005-0.001), indicating short-term resilience. These findings reveal asymmetric, time-varying sensitivities across shipping segments. The study offers policy recommendations to enhance resilience in freight markets facing oil-related volatility.
dc.description.sponsorshipScientific and Technological Research Council of Turkiye (TUBITAK)
dc.description.sponsorshipOpen access funding provided by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkiye (TUBITAK).
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10290-025-00596-2
dc.identifier.endpage1525
dc.identifier.issn1610-2878
dc.identifier.issn1610-2886
dc.identifier.issue4
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105007859842
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage1501
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-025-00596-2
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12885/5510
dc.identifier.volume161
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001508452700001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ3
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.relation.ispartofReview of World Economics
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzWOS_KA_20260207
dc.subjectOil supply surprises
dc.subjectMaritime transport
dc.subjectFreight rates
dc.subjectFrequency connectedness
dc.subjectExternal connectedness
dc.subjectEnergy markets
dc.subjectG15
dc.subjectL91
dc.subjectQ41
dc.titleThe impact of oil supply surprises on maritime transport: a temporal and sectoral analysis
dc.typeArticle

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