A CMIP6-ensemble-based evaluation of precipitation and temperature projections

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dc.authorid0000-0002-4671-6384
dc.authorid0000-0003-2497-5032
dc.contributor.authorYilmaz, Banu
dc.contributor.authorAras, Egemen
dc.contributor.authorNacar, Sinan
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-08T15:14:55Z
dc.date.available2026-02-08T15:14:55Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.departmentBursa Teknik Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractUnderstanding climate change's effects on dam basins is very important for water resource management because of their important role in providing essential functions such as water storage, irrigation, and energy production. This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation variables in the Alt & imath;nkaya Dam Basin, which holds significant potential for hydroelectric power generation in T & uuml;rkiye. These potential impacts were investigated by using ERA5 reanalysis data, six GCMs from the current CMIP6 archive, and two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 - 4.5 and SSP5 - 8.5) scenario data. Four Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) models were developed by using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach (ENS1), simple averaging (ENS2), weighted correlation coefficients (ENS3), and the MARS algorithm (ENS4), and the results were compared to each other. Moreover, quantile delta mapping (QDM) bias correction was used. The 35-year period (1980-2014) was chosen as the reference period, and further evaluations were conducted by dividing it into three future periods (near (2025-2054), mid-far (2055-2084), and far (2085-2100)). Considering the results achieved from the MMEs, variations are expected in the monthly, seasonal, and annual assessments. Projections until the year 2100 indicate that under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, temperature increases could reach up to 3.11 degrees C and 5.64 degrees C, respectively, while precipitation could decrease by as much as 19% and 43%, respectively. These results suggest that the potential changes in temperature and precipitation within the dam basin could significantly impact critical elements such as future water flow and energy production.
dc.description.sponsorshipScientific and Techno-logical Research Council of Turkiye (TUBIdot;TAK)
dc.description.sponsorshipOpen access funding provided by the Scientific and Techno-logical Research Council of Turkiye (TUB & Idot;TAK).
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00704-024-05066-7
dc.identifier.endpage7401
dc.identifier.issn0177-798X
dc.identifier.issn1434-4483
dc.identifier.issue8
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85197161512
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.startpage7377
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05066-7
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12885/5502
dc.identifier.volume155
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001255239400001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ3
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer Wien
dc.relation.ispartofTheoretical and Applied Climatology
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzWOS_KA_20260207
dc.subjectArtificial Neural-Network
dc.subjectAdaptive Regression Splines
dc.subjectBias Correction Methods
dc.subjectClimate-Change Impacts
dc.subjectMultimodel Ensemble
dc.subjectWater-Resources
dc.subjectRiver-Basin
dc.subjectModels
dc.subjectPrediction
dc.subjectCmip6
dc.titleA CMIP6-ensemble-based evaluation of precipitation and temperature projections
dc.typeArticle

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