Modelling the potential distribution of the endemic oak Quercus vulcanica Boiss. & Heldr. ex Kotschy in Turkey from the last interglacial to the future: From near threatened to endangered

Abstract

The aims of this study are to model past (LIG, LGM and Mid-Holocene), present and future (2050 and 2070) distributions of the Quercus vulcanica Boiss. & Heldr. ex Kotschy by using Maximum Entropy, and to predict suitable areas for the conservation of the species for future planning. MaxEnt distribution modeling was used to model distributions. Results for past bioclimatic conditions show that the distribution area of the species expanded and then contracted (LIG to LGM and LGM to HOL). The modelling shows that the distribution range of the species will be narrower in the future. The species will be facing extinction towards 2070. Therefore, the conservation status of the species should be evaluated according to the present findings. Although the largest population of the Q. vulcanica is found in Isparta and Afyonkarahisar Provinces located in Southwestern Turkey, this area will not be suitable for the growth and survival of the species in the future. For this reason, a new nature reserve area should be established in a more suitable climate.