Predicting of the current and future geographical distribution of Laurus nobilis L. under the effects of climate change

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dc.authorid0000-0001-6442-0256
dc.authorid0000-0002-2162-7553
dc.authorid0000-0002-0641-4445
dc.authorid0000-0003-1592-5180
dc.contributor.authorAkyol, Ayhan
dc.contributor.authorOrucu, Omer K.
dc.contributor.authorArslan, E. Seda
dc.contributor.authorSarikaya, Ayse Gul
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-12T21:05:18Z
dc.date.available2026-02-12T21:05:18Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.departmentBursa Teknik Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractToday, climate change affects all living things on earth. It also leads to serious losses in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human welfare. In this context, Laurus nobilis L. is a very important species for Turkey, and the Mediterranean countries. This research aimed to simulate the current distribution of the suitable habitat for L. nobilis in Turkey and to predict its possible range shifts in future climate scenarios. To predict the geographical distribution of L. nobilis, the study used the maximum-entropy algorithm-based MaxEnt 3.4.1 with seven bioclimatic variables created using the Community Climate System Model 4.0 (CCSM4) and the prediction models RCP4.5-8.5 for the years 2050-2070. The results indicated that the most important bioclimatic variables that shape the distribution of L. nobilis are BIO11-mean temperature of coldest quarter, and BIO7-annual temperature range. Two climate change scenarios predicted that the geographical distribution of L. nobilis would increase slightly and then decrease in the future. However, the spatial change analysis showed that the general geographical distribution area of L. nobilis did not change significantly, but the moderate, high, and very high suitable habitats changed towards low suitable habitats. These changes were particularly effective in Turkey's Mediterranean region, which shows that climate change is instrumental in determining the future of the Mediterranean ecosystem. Therefore, suitability mapping and change analysis of potential future bioclimatic habitats can help in planning for land use, conservation, and ecological restoration of L. nobilis.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10661-023-11086-z
dc.identifier.issn0167-6369
dc.identifier.issn1573-2959
dc.identifier.issue4
dc.identifier.pmid36897509
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85149913051
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-11086-z
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12885/6895
dc.identifier.volume195
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000948970700002
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ3
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.indekslendigikaynakPubMed
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.relation.ispartofEnvironmental Monitoring and Assessment
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzKA_WoS_20260212
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectSpecies distribution model
dc.subjectMaxEnt
dc.subjectL
dc.subjectnobilis
dc.subjectMediterranean ecosystem
dc.titlePredicting of the current and future geographical distribution of Laurus nobilis L. under the effects of climate change
dc.typeArticle

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