Effect of climate change on potential distribution areas of the invasive oak lace bug [Corythucha arcuata (Say, 1832)] (Heteroptera: Tingidae) on oak forests of Turkiye

Abstract

This study aimed to model the current and future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) potential distribution areas of the oak lace bug Corythucha arcuata (Say, 1832) with the HadGEM3-GC31-LL model according to the SSP2 and SSP5 emission scenarios. Pearson correlation analysis was performed to select the bioclimatic data to be included in the model. The following seven climatic variables were used: annual mean temperature, maximum temperature in the warmest month, mean temperature during the wettest quarter, mean temperature during the driest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and precipitation during the driest quarter. The current potential distribution area model for C. arcuata established with the Maxent algorithm shows that this species is concentrated in the Marmara and Black Sea regions. According to the HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate change model and the SSP2-45 scenario, during the 2041-2060 (similar to 2050) period, there will be a general narrowing in the species distribution area, with suitable and highly suitable areas concentrated in some regions of Marmara, along the Black Sea coastline, and in the interior. Therefore, state forestry authorities should implement precautions for this pest in oak stands in northern Turkiye.