Assessment of water demand reliability using SWAT and RIBASIM models with respect to climate change and operational water projects

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dc.authorid0000-0002-4767-6660
dc.authorid0000-0001-8205-3787
dc.contributor.authorFathian, Farshad
dc.contributor.authorAhmadzadeh, Hojat
dc.contributor.authorMansouri, Bahareh
dc.contributor.authorVaheddoost, Babak
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-12T21:05:34Z
dc.date.available2026-02-12T21:05:34Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.departmentBursa Teknik Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractReliability assessment in the allocation of water resources under the changing climate condition has invaluable importance in planning the water demand at the basin scale. This study details an integrated framework for evaluation of the reliability between water supply and demand under climate change scenarios in the Zarrineh Rood River basin in the northwest of Iran. Initially, recorded climatic data in six synoptic stations are downscaled and projected for the period 2020-2040 based on the 14 GCMs using the LARS-WG method. Afterwards, the SWAT model is used to simulate the basin hydrology with consideration to the baseline and future climate periods at six hydrometric stations. Finally, the available water is allocated using the RIBASIM model based on the current supply-demand chain and predefined governmental water allocation rules for different sectors. Results showed that under climate change, the total runoff of the basin and the entrance catchments to the Zarrineh Rood River dam would decrease about 8% and 28%, respectively. The reliability of the water supply for joint drinkingindustrial and agricultural demands would also decrease from 96.4% to 93.4%, and 90.2-89.5%, respectively. As such, the average annual streamflow from the Zarrineh Rood River ending to Lake Urmia will reduce by 10% if the operational water projects remain active.
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107377
dc.identifier.issn0378-3774
dc.identifier.issn1873-2283
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85120441371
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107377
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12885/7031
dc.identifier.volume261
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000793041400004
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relation.ispartofAgricultural Water Management
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzKA_WoS_20260212
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectSupply reliability
dc.subjectSWAT
dc.subjectRIBASIM
dc.subjectWater demand
dc.subjectWater resources management
dc.titleAssessment of water demand reliability using SWAT and RIBASIM models with respect to climate change and operational water projects
dc.typeArticle

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