Logistics, energy, and inflation in trade-dependent economies: A political economy of shock transmission across maritime supply chains

Abstract

This study examines how external price shocks originating in global energy markets (Brent and Dubai oil) and maritime freight systems (BDTI and BCTI) are transmitted to consumer price indices (CPI) in four economies of the Global South: China, India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia. Using a time-frequency connectedness framework, the analysis captures the evolving intensity and directionality of inflationary spillovers across short, medium, and long-term horizons. The findings reveal that freight indices not only mediate energy shocks but increasingly act as independent inflationary forces-suggesting the emergence of logistics infrastructures as systemic amplifiers of global price volatility. The analysis shows that energy-importing economies such as China and South Korea are persistently exposed to externally induced price instability, particularly in economies with high energy-import dependence such as China and South Korea, though the categorization does not imply a uniform geopolitical or developmental status. These results challenge domestic-centered views of inflation and underscore the need for a structural understanding of global price formation that accounts for trade dependence, transport asymmetries, and geopolitical exposure.