Distribution of rose hip (Rosa caninaL.) under current and future climate conditions

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dc.authorid0000-0002-0641-4445en_US
dc.contributor.authorArslan, E. Seda
dc.contributor.authorAkyol, Ayhan
dc.contributor.authorOrucu, Omer K.
dc.contributor.authorSarıkaya, Ayşe Gül
dc.date.accessioned2021-03-20T20:09:21Z
dc.date.available2021-03-20T20:09:21Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.departmentBTÜ, Orman Fakültesi, Orman Mühendisliği Bölümüen_US
dc.description.abstractThis study aims to model the potential distribution areas of the speciesRosa canina L.(rose hip) and to predict and analyse possible future changes in its distribution under given climate change scenarios. Nineteen bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were applied to 180 known species presence locations and the potential distribution area of the species under current conditions was identified using MaxEnt. To determine the future geographical distribution of the species under the impact of climate change, the Community Climate System Model (CCSM ver. 4) was used. The climate change scenarios were taken from the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2070 developed in line with the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In addition, change analysis was carried out to identify the precise differences of area and location between the current and future potential distributions of the species, specifying habitat gains, habitat losses and stable habitats. Finally, a jackknife test was carried out to determine which individual bioclimatic variables affect the geographical distribution of the species the most. The study found that areas totalling 170,596 km(2)are currently 'highly suitable' forRosa caninaL., but that this area will contract to 114,474 km(2)by 2070 in the RCP 4.5 scenario and to 41,146 km(2)by 2070 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter was the most influential bioclimatic variable affecting the distribution of the species.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s10113-020-01695-6en_US
dc.identifier.issn1436-3798
dc.identifier.issn1436-378X
dc.identifier.issue3en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01695-6
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12885/378
dc.identifier.volume20en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000567123100002en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.institutionauthorSarıkaya, Ayşe Gül
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSpringer Heidelbergen_US
dc.relation.ispartofRegional Environmental Changeen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectSpecies distribution modelen_US
dc.subjectMaxEnten_US
dc.subjectRosa caninaLen_US
dc.subjectChange analysisen_US
dc.titleDistribution of rose hip (Rosa caninaL.) under current and future climate conditionsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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