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Öğe Effect of climate change on current and future potential distribution of Strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L.) in Turkiye(Nature Portfolio, 2024) Sarikaya, Ayse Gul; Uzun, Almira; Turan, Funda DilaThe demand for nontimber forest products (NTFPs) has increased significantly in recent years. Hundreds of plant species that grow naturally in T & uuml;rkiye have medicinal and aromatic value. Medicinal and aromatic plants are primarily used as a sources of tea, spices, condiments and essential oils. Species belonging to the genus Arbutus L. are used for decorative purposes and as fuel wood in many wood-based industries, they also have a wide range of uses in packaging, chairs making and furniture production. Additionally, the fruits of these trees are widely consumed by humans and animals because they are rich in sugar and vitamin C. It is predicted that changes in climatic conditions will significantly change the distribution, composition and function of forests threatening biodiversity. The purpose of this study was to model current and future potential geographical distributions of Arbutus unedo L., which is among the species that naturally grow in T & uuml;rkiye and is of substantial value in terms of its ecological contribution to forest ecosystems, based on species presence data and environmental variables (bioclimatic variables and altitude). The current and future distribution area models for Arbutus unedo L. indicate that the potential distribution areas of the species in the coming years will gradually decrease, and in the SSP5 8.5 model, which represents the highest level of world resource usage this gradual decrease will reach its highest level and there will be no suitable distribution area left for the species. Therefore, it is predicted that the species will become endangered. In-situ and ex-situ conservation measures need to be taken to ensure the sustainability of the species in forestry and landscape areas.Öğe Effect of climate change on potential distribution areas of the invasive oak lace bug [Corythucha arcuata (Say, 1832)] (Heteroptera: Tingidae) on oak forests of Turkiye(Springer Heidelberg, 2025) Sarikaya, Oguzhan; Gencal, Tutku; Uzun, Almira; Sarikaya, Ayse Gul; Yildiz, YafesThis study aimed to model the current and future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) potential distribution areas of the oak lace bug Corythucha arcuata (Say, 1832) with the HadGEM3-GC31-LL model according to the SSP2 and SSP5 emission scenarios. Pearson correlation analysis was performed to select the bioclimatic data to be included in the model. The following seven climatic variables were used: annual mean temperature, maximum temperature in the warmest month, mean temperature during the wettest quarter, mean temperature during the driest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and precipitation during the driest quarter. The current potential distribution area model for C. arcuata established with the Maxent algorithm shows that this species is concentrated in the Marmara and Black Sea regions. According to the HadGEM3-GC31-LL climate change model and the SSP2-45 scenario, during the 2041-2060 (similar to 2050) period, there will be a general narrowing in the species distribution area, with suitable and highly suitable areas concentrated in some regions of Marmara, along the Black Sea coastline, and in the interior. Therefore, state forestry authorities should implement precautions for this pest in oak stands in northern Turkiye.Öğe Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on the Current and Future Potential Distribution of Berberis vulgaris L. with Machine Learning(Mdpi, 2024) Sarikaya, Ayse Gul; Uzun, AlmiraSpecies of the Berberis genus, which are widely distributed naturally throughout the world, are cultivated and used for various purposes such as food, medicinal applications, and manufacturing dyes. Model-based machine learning is a language for specifying models, allowing the definition of a model using concise code, and enabling the automatic creation of software that implements the specified model. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt 3.4.1) is an algorithm used to model the appropriate distribution of species across geographical regions and is based on the species distribution model that is frequently also used in modeling the current and future potential distribution areas of plant species. Therefore, this study was conducted to estimate the current and future potential distribution areas of Berberis vulgaris in T & uuml;rkiye for the periods 2041-2060 and 2081-2100, according to the SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 scenarios based on the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate change model. For this purpose, the coordinates obtained in the WGS 84 coordinate system were marked using the 5 m high spatial resolution Google Satellite Hybrid base maps, which are readily available in the 3.10.4 QGIS program, the current version of QGIS (Quantum GIS). The CM6A-LR climate model, the latest version of the IPSL climate models, was used to predict the species' future distribution area. The area showed a high correlation with the points representing B. vulgaris, which is generally distributed in the Mediterranean and the central and eastern Black Sea regions of T & uuml;rkiye, and the very suitable areas encompassed 45,413.82 km(2). However, when the SSP2 4.5 scenario was considered for the period 2041-2060, the areas very suitable for Berberis vulgaris comprised 59,120.05 km(2), and in the SSP2 4.5 scenario, very suitable areas were found to encompass 56,730.46 km(2) in the 2081-2100 period. Considering the SSP5 8.5 scenario for the period 2041-2060, the area most suitable for the B. vulgaris species is 66,670.39 km(2). In the SSP5 8.5 scenario, very suitable areas were found to cover 20,108.29 km(2) in the 2081-2100 period. Careful consideration of both the potential positive and negative impacts of climate change is essential, and these should be regarded as opportunities to implement appropriate adaptation strategies. The necessary conditions for the continued existence and sustainability of B. vulgaris-that is, areas with ecological niche potential-have been determined.Öğe Prediction of present and future distribution areas of Juniperus drupacea Labill and determination of ethnobotany properties in Antalya Province, Türkiye(De Gruyter Poland Sp Z O O, 2024) Turkmenoglu, Guliz; Sarikaya, Ayse Gul; Uzun, Almira; Fakir, HuseyinEthnobotanical studies revealed the experience and knowledge of people who learned the therapeutic virtues of plants through trials and errors and transferred their knowledge to the next generations. This study determined the ethnobotanical use of Juniperus drupacea (Andiz) in the Antalya province and the current and future potential distribution areas of J. drupacea in T & uuml;rkiye during 2041-2060 and 2081-2100 according to the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios and based on the IPSL-CM6A-LR climate change model. The very suitable areas encompassed 22379.7 km(2). However, when the SSP2-4.5 scenario was considered, the areas most suitable for J. drupacea comprised 6215.892 km(2) for 2041-2060 and 378.318 km(2) for 2081-2100. Based on the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the area most suitable for J. drupacea was 979.082 km(2) for 2041-2060. However, no suitable areas were identified with the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2081-2100. Considering the models for the future estimated distribution areas of J. drupacea, serious contractions endangering the species are predicted in its distribution areas. Therefore, scientific research should focus on identifying J. drupacea populations and genotypes that demonstrate resilience to future drought conditions resulting from climate change. This endeavor is crucial as it holds significant ecological and economic values.Öğe Random Forest regresyon algoritması ile Pistacia terebinthus L.’nin mevcut ve gelecek potansiyel yayılış alanlarının tahmini(2023) Uzun, Almira; Sarıkaya, Ayse GulAnacardiaceae familyası üyelerinden biri olan Pistacia terebinthus (Menengiç) L. ülkemizde şifalı bitkiler arasında yer almakta kahve, sabun vb. kullanım şekilleri bulunmaktadır. Değişik amaçlardaki kullanımı ile ülkede ekonomik değere sahip olan bu türün iklim değişikliği ile birlikte ülkemizde nasıl bir dağılım göstereceği merak konusudur. Bu çalışmada, iklim değişikliğinin Pistacia terebinthus L.’nin Türkiye’deki yayılış alanları üzerine etkisini belirlemek için Random Forest regresyon algoritmasından yararlanılmıştır. Model için, Menengiç’e ait varlık verileri ve günümüz ve gelecek biyo-iklimsel değişkenler kullanılmıştır. Gelecek yayılış alanlarını belirlemek için HadGEM3-GC31-LL iklim değişikliği modeli ve SSP2 4.5 SSP5 8.5 senaryolarına ait 2041-2060 (~2050) ve 2081-2100 (~2090) periyotları tercih edilmiştir. Menengiç’in günümüz ve iki farklı senaryoya göre gelecek yayılış alanları karşılaştırıldığında, türe ait yayılış alanlarında daralmalar olacağı ve günümüzde 118245 km2 olarak hesaplanmış çok uygun olarak değerlendirilen yayılış alanlarının gelecek koşullarda olmayacağı tahmin edilmektedir. Günümüzde uygun ve çok uygun yayılış alanları toplamda 288896.243 km2 iken bu sayının, SSP2 4.5 senaryosu ~2050 ve ~2090 periyotlarında sırası ile yaklaşık %50 ve %40’lara kadar gerileyeceği ve SSP5 8.5 senaryosu ~2050 ve ~2090 periyotlarında yine sırasıyla yaklaşık %45 ve %15’ine kadar gerileceği görülmektedir.Öğe Spartium junceum L. (Katırtırnağı)’un küresel iklim değişimi etkisi altındaki potansiyel yayılış alanlarının modellenmesi(Bursa Technical University, 2023) Uzun, Almira; Örücü, Ömer K.İklimin canlılar üzerindeki yaşamsal etkileri ve bu etkilerin sebepleri yaşamın varlığı boyunca bilinmekte ve araştırılmaya devam etmektedir. İklim değişikliğinin bitkiler üzerinde de birçok farklı etkisi bulunmakta ve çoğu zaman da bu etkiler olumsuz sonuçlar doğurmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, parlak sarı çiçekleri ile dikkat çeken ve özellikle toprak tutma kabiliyeti olan Spartium junceum L. (Katırtırnağı)’un günümüz yayılış alanı ve gelecekte iklim değişikliği etkisi altında potansiyel yayılış alanları MaxEnt algoritması ile modellenmiştir. Modelde, örnek noktalar ve biyoklimatik değişkenlerle birlikte IPSL CM6A-LR iklim değişikliği modelindeki SSP2 4.5 ve SSP5 8.5 senaryolarının 2041-2060 (~2050) ve 2081-2100 (~2090) periyotları kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada oluşturulan model sonuçlarına göre Katırtırnağı’nın günümüzdeki tahmini potansiyel uygun ve çok uygun yayılış alanlarının 52270 km2 olduğu tahmin edilmiştir. IPSL CM6A-LR iklim değişimi modeline göre ise gelecekte yayılış alanlarında büyük oranda azalmalar yaşanayacağı ve SSP5 8.5 senaryosu 2081-2100 periyotlarında çok uygun yayılış alanlarının sadece 17 km2 olarak kalacağı, yani birçok açıdan ekonomik ve ekolojik değere sahip bu türün neslinin ülkemiz koşullarında tehlikeye gireceği görülmektedir.
