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Öğe Asymmetric spillovers from climate, trade, and monetary policy uncertainty to greenhouse gases: A quantile-on-quantile connectedness approach(Academic Press Ltd- Elsevier Science Ltd, 2025) Keser, Hilal Yildirir; Tarkun, SavasThis study examines the directional and threshold-dependent connectedness between greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 and CH4) and key sources of policy uncertainty-namely climate (CPU), trade (TPU), and monetary policy (MPU)-using the Quantile-on-Quantile Connectedness (QQC) approach. Based on monthly data from January 1988 to December 2024, the results reveal asymmetric and time-varying information flows across different quantiles. CO2 emerges as a systemic transmitter under climate and monetary uncertainty, while CH4 exhibits selective and regime-dependent responses, particularly under trade policy shocks. The Total Connectedness Index (TCI) dynamics suggest significant structural breaks, with reversals in information directionality observed post-2006 and during the COVID-19 period. The findings highlight the importance of accounting for tail-risk sensitivity and nonlinear spillovers in environmental and economic policymaking, offering new insights into how uncertainty shapes emission behavior across time and regimes.Öğe Connectedness between climate variables and maritime markets: Time-varying dynamics and sustainability perspective(Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2025) Tarkun, SavasThis study examines the impact of sea surface temperatures and global temperature anomalies on maritime markets using the TVP-VAR based Connectedness Decomposition Approach. The results indicate that tanker markets (BDTI and BCTI) are more sensitive to climate variables, while dry bulk markets demonstrate greater resilience. The Total Connectedness Index (TCI) reveals that market integration intensifies during global economic crises and pandemic periods. Findings support a pairwise relationship between freight markets, carbon emissions, and climate variability. In line with the IMO 2023 GHG Strategy, this study proposes short-, medium-, and long-term sustainability strategies to enhance the maritime sector's adaptation to climate policies. The results highlight the crucial role of maritime markets in environmental sustainability efforts.Öğe Dynamic dependence between sectoral indexes of BRIC countries and the baltic dirty tanker index: An investigation using the generalized R2 approach(Elsevier, 2025) Tok, Serife Akinci; Tarkun, SavasThis study analyzes the dynamic connectedness between the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) and sector indexes in the stock exchanges of the BRIC countries, focusing on the chemical, oil, and raw materials sectors. Using daily data from January 1, 2015, to September 30, 2024, the analysis reveals significant pairwise relationships, highlighting the sensitivity of these sector indexes to shipping costs. The findings indicate that during periods of heightened market volatility, the BDTI has substantial influence, especially on Russia's chemical and India's oil and gas sectors. These results suggest that geopolitical risks and market uncertainty can significantly amplify interdependence. Based on these insights, proactive policies aimed at stabilizing shipping costs and improving cooperation among the BRIC countries are recommended to mitigate the impact of unexpected increases in freight rates. This study offers valuable information for policy makers, investors, and industry representatives for strengthening risk management strategies in shipping and logistics.Öğe Dynamic relationships between inflation, industrial production, and freight rates in the EU: A wavelet coherence and causality analysis(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2025) Tarkun, SavasThis study investigates the impact of maritime transport costs on macroeconomic indicators in the European Union (EU) economy. Using data for the period between June 2002 and April 2024, the dynamic relationships between the Baltic Dry Index, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, and the Baltic Clean Tanker Index and EU inflation and industrial production are analyzed using wavelet coherence analysis and the Breitung-Candelon frequency domain causality test. The results show that maritime transport costs significantly impact EU inflation and industrial production, especially during periods of economic crisis and shocks. The study suggests that the EU needs to strengthen its supply chain management, diversify its logistics infrastructure, and develop strategies to reduce energy costs. Proactive and sustainable policy recommendations for the EU are also presented to increase the predictability of maritime transport costs. Our study emphasizes that the EU needs to make structural investments in energy and logistics to ensure price stability. It suggests that the EU should monitor and integrate transport costs into economic policies.Öğe Financial market volatility and maritime freight indices: A connectedness approach(Elsevier, 2025) Tarkun, SavasThis study investigates the dynamic and time-varying connectedness between global financial markets and maritime freight indices, emphasizing the transmission and direction of volatility shocks during periods of economic uncertainty. Using the Connectedness Decomposition Approach (TVP-VAR-based), we explore the interaction between major global stock indices (e.g., S&P 500, DJIA, DAX, NIKKEI225) and maritime freight indicators (BDI, BDTI, BCTI) over the period from January 2013 to December 2024. Our results reveal that stock market volatility significantly influences shipping indices, especially during global crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, freight indices are not merely passive receivers of financial shocks; in certain episodes, they act as net transmitters of volatility, affecting financial markets in return. This dual behavior indicates a structural shift in the maritime sector's role within the global economic system. Furthermore, the findings show a declining trend in total connectedness post-2016, reflecting increased segmentation between freight and financial markets. These insights are particularly valuable for policymakers, investors, and maritime stakeholders seeking to develop hedging strategies, strengthen supply chain resilience, and better forecast market dependencies during financial and geopolitical turmoil.Öğe Impact of Baltic Dry index on critical metal prices: Implications for renewable energy supply chains(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2025) Tarkun, Savas; Tok, Serife AkinciThis study investigates the dynamic relationship between the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the prices of metals essential to renewable energy technologies, such as copper, nickel, and cobalt. Using daily data from 2015 to 2024, we employ wavelet coherence and a TVP-VAR-based connectedness decomposition to uncover timevarying, directional, and frequency-sensitive linkages between maritime transport costs and clean energy metal markets. Our findings show that shipping costs are not merely passive reflections of market conditions but active components shaping price fluctuations-particularly during global disruptions like the COVID-19 pandemic. Copper and zinc exhibit strong comovement with freight rates, while nickel and cobalt display evolving interaction patterns over time. These results underscore the systemic role of maritime logistics in renewable energy supply chains and highlight freight rate shocks as a potential vulnerability for mineral cost stability. We argue about integrating transport risk into mineral sourcing strategies and energy transition planning.Öğe Logistics, energy, and inflation in trade-dependent economies: A political economy of shock transmission across maritime supply chains(Elsevier Sci Ltd, 2025) Tarkun, SavasThis study examines how external price shocks originating in global energy markets (Brent and Dubai oil) and maritime freight systems (BDTI and BCTI) are transmitted to consumer price indices (CPI) in four economies of the Global South: China, India, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia. Using a time-frequency connectedness framework, the analysis captures the evolving intensity and directionality of inflationary spillovers across short, medium, and long-term horizons. The findings reveal that freight indices not only mediate energy shocks but increasingly act as independent inflationary forces-suggesting the emergence of logistics infrastructures as systemic amplifiers of global price volatility. The analysis shows that energy-importing economies such as China and South Korea are persistently exposed to externally induced price instability, particularly in economies with high energy-import dependence such as China and South Korea, though the categorization does not imply a uniform geopolitical or developmental status. These results challenge domestic-centered views of inflation and underscore the need for a structural understanding of global price formation that accounts for trade dependence, transport asymmetries, and geopolitical exposure.Öğe Rethinking renewable energy sustainability: The hidden carbon footprint of critical metals(Pergamon-Elsevier Science Ltd, 2025) Tarkun, Savas; Tok, Serife AkinciAs the global energy transition accelerates, the environmental sustainability of renewable energy technologies faces growing scrutiny. This study employs the external connectedness decomposition methodology of Gabauer and Gupta (2018) to analyze the pairwise dynamics between global CO2 concentrations and the prices of critical metals-aluminum, copper, nickel, and zinc-integral to renewable energy systems. Using a TVP-VAR model, we uncover that while renewable technologies promise reduced carbon emissions, the energy-intensive production of these metals significantly contributes to CO2 emissions, creating a paradox at the heart of sustainability. The findings reveal CO2 as a highly reactive and influential variable within the system, amplifying the complex interdependencies between energy transitions and material production. This research underscores the urgent need for innovative policies and technologies that decouple metal production from carbon emissions, ensuring that renewable energy transitions align with global climate goals.Öğe The impact of oil supply surprises on maritime transport: a temporal and sectoral analysis(Springer, 2025) Tarkun, SavasThis study investigates how oil supply surprises affect maritime transport across time and sectors. Using the K & auml;nzig (Am Econ Rev 11(4):1092-1125, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1257/AER.20190964) approach, we identify shocks from OPEC announcements and examine their effects on shipping indices through the Barun & iacute;k and K & rcaron;ehl & iacute;k (J Financ Econom 16(2):271-296, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nby001) frequency connectedness model, Gabauer and Gupta's (Econ Lett 171:63-71, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2018.07.007) external connectedness framework, and impulse response analysis. Results show that oil shocks affect tanker indices (BDTI, BCTI) more than dry bulk (BDI). In the medium term, spillovers reach up to 0.33% for BCTI and 0.19% for BDTI, but only 0.05% for BDI. Brent-based shocks transmit over 5.4% of external information during crisis periods. Impulse responses confirm that shock effects are short-lived and economically minor (0.0005-0.001), indicating short-term resilience. These findings reveal asymmetric, time-varying sensitivities across shipping segments. The study offers policy recommendations to enhance resilience in freight markets facing oil-related volatility.
