Dynamic relationships between inflation, industrial production, and freight rates in the EU: A wavelet coherence and causality analysis

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of maritime transport costs on macroeconomic indicators in the European Union (EU) economy. Using data for the period between June 2002 and April 2024, the dynamic relationships between the Baltic Dry Index, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index, and the Baltic Clean Tanker Index and EU inflation and industrial production are analyzed using wavelet coherence analysis and the Breitung-Candelon frequency domain causality test. The results show that maritime transport costs significantly impact EU inflation and industrial production, especially during periods of economic crisis and shocks. The study suggests that the EU needs to strengthen its supply chain management, diversify its logistics infrastructure, and develop strategies to reduce energy costs. Proactive and sustainable policy recommendations for the EU are also presented to increase the predictability of maritime transport costs. Our study emphasizes that the EU needs to make structural investments in energy and logistics to ensure price stability. It suggests that the EU should monitor and integrate transport costs into economic policies.