Yazar "Orucu, Omer K." seçeneğine göre listele

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    Distribution of rose hip (Rosa caninaL.) under current and future climate conditions
    (Springer Heidelberg, 2020) Arslan, E. Seda; Akyol, Ayhan; Orucu, Omer K.; Sarıkaya, Ayşe Gül
    This study aims to model the potential distribution areas of the speciesRosa canina L.(rose hip) and to predict and analyse possible future changes in its distribution under given climate change scenarios. Nineteen bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were applied to 180 known species presence locations and the potential distribution area of the species under current conditions was identified using MaxEnt. To determine the future geographical distribution of the species under the impact of climate change, the Community Climate System Model (CCSM ver. 4) was used. The climate change scenarios were taken from the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2070 developed in line with the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In addition, change analysis was carried out to identify the precise differences of area and location between the current and future potential distributions of the species, specifying habitat gains, habitat losses and stable habitats. Finally, a jackknife test was carried out to determine which individual bioclimatic variables affect the geographical distribution of the species the most. The study found that areas totalling 170,596 km(2)are currently 'highly suitable' forRosa caninaL., but that this area will contract to 114,474 km(2)by 2070 in the RCP 4.5 scenario and to 41,146 km(2)by 2070 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter was the most influential bioclimatic variable affecting the distribution of the species.
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    Maxent modeling for predicting the potential distribution of Arbutus andrachne L. belonging to climate change in Turkey
    (University of Kuwait, 2021) Sarıkaya, Ayşe Gül; Orucu, Omer K.
    Arbutus andrachne L., the strawberry tree, is an evergreen shrub or small tree in the Turkish flora and has broad uses. The wood is used for decorative purposes, packaging, and manufacturing furniture. The fruits are edible and used in treating many kinds of diseases. However, global warming might affect the abundance of this symbolic plant's distribution, especially at higher latitudes. This study was conducted to determine the expected effects of climate change on A. andrachne. For this purpose, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to expect climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070, and potential distribution areas of A. andrachne were presented. The results indicated that the distribution of A. andrachne would decrease in the southern regions of Turkey. However, the spread of the species could be expanded in the western and northern areas. It is also expected that there would be potential habitat losses, which would affect the distribution of A. andrachne.
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    PREDICTION OF POTENTIAL AND FUTURE DISTRIBUTION AREAS OF ANATOLIAN CHESNUT (CASTANEA SATIVA MILL.) BY USING MAXIMUM ENTROPY (MAXENT) MODELING DEPENDING ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN TURKEY
    (Health & Environment Assoc, 2019) Sarıkaya, Ayşe Gül; Orucu, Omer K.
    The current and future potential distribution areas of the species according to different climate scenarios can be revealed with Maxent program by means of layers which are created using point data representing the areas where species exist and digital bioclimatic data belonging to these areas. The aim of this study is to determine the potential distribution area of Castanea sativa that has economic importance for Turkish forestry and how it will be affected by climate change. In order to determine how the distribution area of the species will be affected by climate change, the potential distribution area of the species in 2050 and 2070 according to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 was modeled according to the CCSM version 4 (Community Climate System Model) climate change scenario, which was created based on the 5th IPCC report. As a result of the study, suitable areas as the current distribution area of Castanea sativa are calculated as 31114.8 km(2) and the most suitable areas are calculated as 17605.1 km(2). Furthermore, according to the CCSM4 climate change scenario, significant losses are observed in the potential distribution areas of the species in the future.