Yazar "Orucu, Omer K." seçeneğine göre listele

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    Distribution of rose hip (Rosa caninaL.) under current and future climate conditions
    (Springer Heidelberg, 2020) Arslan, E. Seda; Akyol, Ayhan; Orucu, Omer K.; Sarıkaya, Ayşe Gül
    This study aims to model the potential distribution areas of the speciesRosa canina L.(rose hip) and to predict and analyse possible future changes in its distribution under given climate change scenarios. Nineteen bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were applied to 180 known species presence locations and the potential distribution area of the species under current conditions was identified using MaxEnt. To determine the future geographical distribution of the species under the impact of climate change, the Community Climate System Model (CCSM ver. 4) was used. The climate change scenarios were taken from the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for 2050 and 2070 developed in line with the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In addition, change analysis was carried out to identify the precise differences of area and location between the current and future potential distributions of the species, specifying habitat gains, habitat losses and stable habitats. Finally, a jackknife test was carried out to determine which individual bioclimatic variables affect the geographical distribution of the species the most. The study found that areas totalling 170,596 km(2)are currently 'highly suitable' forRosa caninaL., but that this area will contract to 114,474 km(2)by 2070 in the RCP 4.5 scenario and to 41,146 km(2)by 2070 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. The mean temperature of the wettest quarter was the most influential bioclimatic variable affecting the distribution of the species.
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    Maxent modeling for predicting the potential distribution of Arbutus andrachne L. belonging to climate change in Turkey
    (University of Kuwait, 2021) Sarıkaya, Ayşe Gül; Orucu, Omer K.
    Arbutus andrachne L., the strawberry tree, is an evergreen shrub or small tree in the Turkish flora and has broad uses. The wood is used for decorative purposes, packaging, and manufacturing furniture. The fruits are edible and used in treating many kinds of diseases. However, global warming might affect the abundance of this symbolic plant's distribution, especially at higher latitudes. This study was conducted to determine the expected effects of climate change on A. andrachne. For this purpose, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to expect climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070, and potential distribution areas of A. andrachne were presented. The results indicated that the distribution of A. andrachne would decrease in the southern regions of Turkey. However, the spread of the species could be expanded in the western and northern areas. It is also expected that there would be potential habitat losses, which would affect the distribution of A. andrachne.
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    Predicting of the current and future geographical distribution of Laurus nobilis L. under the effects of climate change
    (Springer, 2023) Akyol, Ayhan; Orucu, Omer K.; Arslan, E. Seda; Sarikaya, Ayse Gul
    Today, climate change affects all living things on earth. It also leads to serious losses in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human welfare. In this context, Laurus nobilis L. is a very important species for Turkey, and the Mediterranean countries. This research aimed to simulate the current distribution of the suitable habitat for L. nobilis in Turkey and to predict its possible range shifts in future climate scenarios. To predict the geographical distribution of L. nobilis, the study used the maximum-entropy algorithm-based MaxEnt 3.4.1 with seven bioclimatic variables created using the Community Climate System Model 4.0 (CCSM4) and the prediction models RCP4.5-8.5 for the years 2050-2070. The results indicated that the most important bioclimatic variables that shape the distribution of L. nobilis are BIO11-mean temperature of coldest quarter, and BIO7-annual temperature range. Two climate change scenarios predicted that the geographical distribution of L. nobilis would increase slightly and then decrease in the future. However, the spatial change analysis showed that the general geographical distribution area of L. nobilis did not change significantly, but the moderate, high, and very high suitable habitats changed towards low suitable habitats. These changes were particularly effective in Turkey's Mediterranean region, which shows that climate change is instrumental in determining the future of the Mediterranean ecosystem. Therefore, suitability mapping and change analysis of potential future bioclimatic habitats can help in planning for land use, conservation, and ecological restoration of L. nobilis.
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    Predicting the future distributions of Calomicrus apicalis Demaison, 1891 (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) under climate change
    (Springer Heidelberg, 2022) Sen, Ismail; Sarikaya, Oguzhan; Orucu, Omer K.
    Climate change is one of the main drivers of the changes in the distribution of species in the twenty-first century. Thus, the number of studies on the prediction of the effects of climate change on species is increasing day by day. Calomicrus apicalis is a pest leaf beetle (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) species which only distributes in Cyprus, Syria, and Turkey. The species causes important damages especially on Taurus cedar (Cedrus libani) stands of Turkish forests and also feeds on Pinus brutia, P. nigra, and P. sylvestris trees. This study aims to model the current and future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) distribution of this pest species according to SSP2 and SSP5 emission scenarios given by the MIROC6 climate change model. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling was used to determine the current and future potential distribution of the species. Also, post-modeling analyses were performed to reveal the changes in both spatial distribution and niche suitability of the area (according to presence probability classes) between present and future distribution ranges of the species. The most important bioclimatic variables which shape the range of the species were precipitation of driest quarter, temperature seasonality, and precipitation of driest month. As a result of the study, it is determined that the current distribution of the species could be wider than its known distribution range. Most of all, the whole of the Aegean Region is a highly suitable area for the species. According to our models, the distribution of the species under climate change will expand toward the Sivas Province from the present to 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. However, the distribution of the species will shrink considerably from 2041-2060 to 2081-2100 because of changing climate. According to the change analysis, highly suitable areas for the species will decrease by around 36% and 15% by 2081-2100 according to the SSP2 and SSP5 scenarios, respectively. Although the distribution of the species will shrink in the future, the species should be observed up to 2041-2060 because it will distribute more widely in this period (current to 2041-2060) and cause damages in weakened trees due to drought stress.
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    PREDICTION OF POTENTIAL AND FUTURE DISTRIBUTION AREAS OF ANATOLIAN CHESNUT (CASTANEA SATIVA MILL.) BY USING MAXIMUM ENTROPY (MAXENT) MODELING DEPENDING ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN TURKEY
    (Health & Environment Assoc, 2019) Sarıkaya, Ayşe Gül; Orucu, Omer K.
    The current and future potential distribution areas of the species according to different climate scenarios can be revealed with Maxent program by means of layers which are created using point data representing the areas where species exist and digital bioclimatic data belonging to these areas. The aim of this study is to determine the potential distribution area of Castanea sativa that has economic importance for Turkish forestry and how it will be affected by climate change. In order to determine how the distribution area of the species will be affected by climate change, the potential distribution area of the species in 2050 and 2070 according to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 was modeled according to the CCSM version 4 (Community Climate System Model) climate change scenario, which was created based on the 5th IPCC report. As a result of the study, suitable areas as the current distribution area of Castanea sativa are calculated as 31114.8 km(2) and the most suitable areas are calculated as 17605.1 km(2). Furthermore, according to the CCSM4 climate change scenario, significant losses are observed in the potential distribution areas of the species in the future.