PREDICTION OF POTENTIAL AND FUTURE DISTRIBUTION AREAS OF ANATOLIAN CHESNUT (CASTANEA SATIVA MILL.) BY USING MAXIMUM ENTROPY (MAXENT) MODELING DEPENDING ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN TURKEY

Abstract

The current and future potential distribution areas of the species according to different climate scenarios can be revealed with Maxent program by means of layers which are created using point data representing the areas where species exist and digital bioclimatic data belonging to these areas. The aim of this study is to determine the potential distribution area of Castanea sativa that has economic importance for Turkish forestry and how it will be affected by climate change. In order to determine how the distribution area of the species will be affected by climate change, the potential distribution area of the species in 2050 and 2070 according to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 was modeled according to the CCSM version 4 (Community Climate System Model) climate change scenario, which was created based on the 5th IPCC report. As a result of the study, suitable areas as the current distribution area of Castanea sativa are calculated as 31114.8 km(2) and the most suitable areas are calculated as 17605.1 km(2). Furthermore, according to the CCSM4 climate change scenario, significant losses are observed in the potential distribution areas of the species in the future.