Predicting the future distributions of Calomicrus apicalis Demaison, 1891 (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) under climate change

Abstract

Climate change is one of the main drivers of the changes in the distribution of species in the twenty-first century. Thus, the number of studies on the prediction of the effects of climate change on species is increasing day by day. Calomicrus apicalis is a pest leaf beetle (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) species which only distributes in Cyprus, Syria, and Turkey. The species causes important damages especially on Taurus cedar (Cedrus libani) stands of Turkish forests and also feeds on Pinus brutia, P. nigra, and P. sylvestris trees. This study aims to model the current and future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) distribution of this pest species according to SSP2 and SSP5 emission scenarios given by the MIROC6 climate change model. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling was used to determine the current and future potential distribution of the species. Also, post-modeling analyses were performed to reveal the changes in both spatial distribution and niche suitability of the area (according to presence probability classes) between present and future distribution ranges of the species. The most important bioclimatic variables which shape the range of the species were precipitation of driest quarter, temperature seasonality, and precipitation of driest month. As a result of the study, it is determined that the current distribution of the species could be wider than its known distribution range. Most of all, the whole of the Aegean Region is a highly suitable area for the species. According to our models, the distribution of the species under climate change will expand toward the Sivas Province from the present to 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. However, the distribution of the species will shrink considerably from 2041-2060 to 2081-2100 because of changing climate. According to the change analysis, highly suitable areas for the species will decrease by around 36% and 15% by 2081-2100 according to the SSP2 and SSP5 scenarios, respectively. Although the distribution of the species will shrink in the future, the species should be observed up to 2041-2060 because it will distribute more widely in this period (current to 2041-2060) and cause damages in weakened trees due to drought stress.