Exploring and forecasting climate change and wood decay hazard trends in Türkiye

Abstract

Wood is an organic material, so it is susceptible to degradation by various biological agents. When temperatures range from 20 degrees C to 27 degrees C and humidity levels are between 65% and 70%, the conditions are ideal for fungal growth. In T & uuml;rkiye, wood materials typically used in outdoor environments fall within these ranges, making them vulnerable to fungal damage. Therefore, understanding climate index values is crucial for assessing the risk of fungal damage to outdoor wood materials in our country and for identifying the technical and practical measures needed to minimize the adverse effects of potential decay hazards. The study's objective is to classify the climate of provinces in T & uuml;rkiye and calculate climate index values using meteorological data from 2012 to 2023. In doing so, the study aims to link these values to the biological decay of wood. For this purpose, the Erinc climate classification and Scheffer Climate Index values were calculated using temperature and precipitation data over the last 11 years. These values were then categorized according to decay risk levels. Additionally, optimized SARIMA models were used to forecast climate classifications and index values over the next 5 years. As a result, the overall climate index for the periods 2012-2023 and 2024-2028 has decreased compared to previous years' values. The highest precipitation efficiency index was observed in the Eastern Black Sea region, while the lowest was found in the Southeastern Anatolia and Central Anatolia regions. On a provincial basis, the highest precipitation efficiency index was recorded in Rize, while the lowest was detected in Igdir. The values of the Scheffer Climate Index have increased slightly in recent years and are expected to continue rising. The highest Scheffer Climate Index values were observed in the Eastern Black Sea region, specifically in Rize, Giresun, Ordu, and Trabzon. In contrast, the lowest index values were found in Bitlis and Van in the Eastern Anatolia region, Karaman in the Central Anatolia region, and Batman in the Southeastern Anatolia region. The findings on climate indices indicate decreasing precipitation and increasing temperatures. In regions with a high risk of decay, it is essential to use impregnated wood for outdoor applications. As is the case globally, rising global temperatures in our country are causing significant changes in the climate and vegetation. As a result, wood used in outdoor environments is significantly impacted by seasonal factors, which can alter its service life over time. Particularly in recent years, decreases in precipitation and corresponding increases in temperature and global solar radiation are likely to change the factors that cause wood damage. Given the expected rise in fungal attacks, insect and termite infestations, and photodegradation in the coming years, it is necessary to promote the use of impregnated or modified wood products for outdoor applications and raise public awareness about these issues.