Projected Drought Intensification in the Büyük Menderes Basin Under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios

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dc.authorid0000-0001-6390-5681
dc.authorid0000-0003-0559-5261
dc.authorid0000-0002-4767-6660
dc.contributor.authorRotbeei, Farzad
dc.contributor.authorNuri Balov, Mustafa
dc.contributor.authorSafari, Mir Jafar Sadegh
dc.contributor.authorVaheddoost, Babak
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-08T15:15:55Z
dc.date.available2026-02-08T15:15:55Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentBursa Teknik Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThe amplitude and interval of drought events are expected to enhance in upcoming years resulting from global warming and climate alterations. Understanding future drought events' potential impacts is important for effective regional adaptation and mitigation approaches. The main goal of this research is to study the impacts of climate change on drought in the B & uuml;y & uuml;k Menderes Basin located in the Aegean region of western T & uuml;rkiye by using the outcomes of three general circulation models (GCMs) from CMIP6 considering two different emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Following a bias correction using a linear scaling method, daily precipitation and temperature projections are used to compute the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The effectiveness of the GCMs in projecting precipitation and temperature is evaluated using observational data from the reference period (1985-2014). Future drought conditions are then assessed based on drought indices for three periods: 2015-2040 (near future), 2041-2070 (mid-term future), and 2071-2100 (late future). Consequently, the number of dry months is projected and expected to elevate, informed by SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, during the late-century timeframe (2071-2100) in comparison to the baseline period (1985-2014). The findings of this study offer an important understanding for crafting adaptation strategies aimed at reducing future drought impacts in the B & uuml;y & uuml;k Menderes Basin in the face of changing climate conditions.
dc.description.sponsorshipYasar University Project Evaluation Commission (PEC); [BAP 133]
dc.description.sponsorshipThis publication is supported as part of Project No. BAP 133 entitled Future of Hydro-meteorological Droughts in the Aegean Region with Respect to the Climate Change Scenarios has been approved by the Yasar University Project Evaluation Commission (PEC) under the coordination of the third author (M.J.S.S.).
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/cli13030047
dc.identifier.issn2225-1154
dc.identifier.issue3
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105001166893
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3390/cli13030047
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12885/6045
dc.identifier.volume13
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001452041300001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherMdpi
dc.relation.ispartofClimate
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzWOS_KA_20260207
dc.subjectCMIP6
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectdrought
dc.subjectT & uuml;rkiye
dc.subjectSPEI
dc.titleProjected Drought Intensification in the Büyük Menderes Basin Under CMIP6 Climate Scenarios
dc.typeArticle

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