The impact of the Russian-Ukraine war on the stock market: a causal analysis

Basit Öğe Kaydı
dc.contributor.authorDerindere Köseoğlu, Sinem
dc.contributor.authorAdıgüzel Mercangöz, Burcu
dc.contributor.authorKhan, Khalid S.
dc.contributor.authorSarwar, Suleman
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-08T15:11:11Z
dc.date.available2026-02-08T15:11:11Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.departmentBursa Teknik Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThe study assumes the causal effects of the Russian-Ukraine war on the Moscow Exchange index based on forecasting the counterfactual market response. The findings suggest that the Ukraine war has a detrimental impact on the index; the effects are especially more pronounced at the beginning of the war. The results indicate a rapid divergence from counterfactual predictions and the actual stock index was consistently lower than would have been expected in the absence of war. The two curves suggest a reconvening pattern in the stock market when the stock market resumes its activities. The estimate of the Moscow Exchange index decline following the conflict and reaching the bottom is shown in the point-wise causal effect. The cumulative causal effect adds up to the causal effect in the course of time. In relative terms, the response variable decreased by ?51%. This means that the negative impact observed during the intervention period is statistically significant. The diverse economic sectors should have access to market information and pay close attention to the effects of the conflict on the stock market. Investment decisions and policy adjustments should be based on the evolution and changes in the conflict. © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
dc.identifier.doi10.1080/00036846.2023.2188168
dc.identifier.endpage2519
dc.identifier.issn0003-6846
dc.identifier.issue21
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85150502033
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.startpage2509
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2023.2188168
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12885/5287
dc.identifier.volume56
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000945846000001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherRoutledge
dc.relation.ispartofApplied Economics
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzScopus_KA_20260207
dc.subjectcausal inference
dc.subjectconflict
dc.subjectcounterfactual predicting
dc.subjectStock market
dc.subjectUkraine war
dc.titleThe impact of the Russian-Ukraine war on the stock market: a causal analysis
dc.typeArticle

Dosyalar

Koleksiyon

Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu
WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu