Revealing Volatility Spillover Effects Between CDS Premiums and Equity Markets in Developed and Developing Countries: VAR-BEKK-GARCH Model Approach

Abstract

This study aims to analyze volatility spillover effects between stock and sovereign credit default swap (CDS) markets by adopting the VAR-BEKK-GARCH(1,1) model. The research questions can be expressed as follows. Does a significant volatility spillover exist between equity and CDS markets? Does a difference in volatility spillovers occur between developed and developing countries? Do the correlations between the stock market and CDS market differ in developed and developing countries? The empirical findings demonstrate a weak cross-market spillover between the stock and CDS markets. In other words, the volatility observed in the stock and CDS markets is subject to past shocks more than cross-market spillovers. The lagged volatility in both stock and CDS markets has a substantial effect on the current period conditional volatility. In addition, no volatility spillovers were detected from the CDS market to the stock market. The information outflow about financial markets is priced initially in the stock market and then gets reflected onto the CDS market. The correlations and covariance relationships between CDS premiums and stock indices change over time. The correlations and covariance relationships show significant changes during periods of financial turmoil.