A CMIP6-based drought assessment over Küçük Menderes Basin,Türkiye

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dc.authorid0000-0001-6390-5681
dc.contributor.authorRotbeei, Farzad
dc.contributor.authorNuri Balov, Mustafa
dc.contributor.authorSafari, Mir Jafar Sadegh
dc.contributor.authorVaheddoost, Babak
dc.date.accessioned2026-02-08T15:14:56Z
dc.date.available2026-02-08T15:14:56Z
dc.date.issued2025
dc.departmentBursa Teknik Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractDroughts are the phenomenon of which their magnitude and frequency are forecasted to escalate over time primarily due to the impacts of climate change and global warming. Hence, the potential consequences of the expected drought events are of the great importance in performing effective adaptation and regional mitigation strategies. The objective of the current study is to explore the consequences of climate change on the future droughts in K & uuml;& ccedil;& uuml;k Menderes Basin in western T & uuml;rkiye. This objective will be addressed by examining the outputs of four General Circulation Models (GCMs) incorporated within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP6), with particular emphasis on two contrasting emission trajectories: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The daily precipitation and temperature projections are then utilized in determination of the so-called Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) drought indices with consideration to 2015-2039 as near future, 2040-2069 as mid-term future, and 2070-2099 as late future time frames. According to projections based on the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the number of dry months is anticipated to escalate by approximately 26.12% and 39.80%, respectively, toward the end of the twenty-first century (2070-2099), in contrast to the reference period (1985-2014). Results of the current study provide valuable insights for developing adaptation strategies to address future consequences of drought events in the K & uuml;& ccedil;& uuml;k Menderes Basin amid evolving climate conditions.
dc.description.sponsorshipYasar University; Turkish Meteorology General Directorate
dc.description.sponsorshipThe authors gratefully acknowledge the Turkish Meteorology General Directorate (MGM) for supplying the data used in this research.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s00704-025-05552-6
dc.identifier.issn0177-798X
dc.identifier.issn1434-4483
dc.identifier.issue6
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-105006888640
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05552-6
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12885/5503
dc.identifier.volume156
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001497416600003
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ3
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer Wien
dc.relation.ispartofTheoretical and Applied Climatology
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzWOS_KA_20260207
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectCMIP6
dc.subjectDrought
dc.subjectSPI
dc.subjectSPEI
dc.subjectT & uuml;rkiye
dc.titleA CMIP6-based drought assessment over Küçük Menderes Basin,Türkiye
dc.typeArticle

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