Finansal serbestleşme, sıcak para girişlerinin ekonomik büyüme ve cari açık ile ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği
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Dosyalar
Tarih
2020
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Bursa Teknik Üniversitesi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
İzmir İktisat Kongresiyle liberal politikalar belirleyen ve yabancı sermayeye olumsuz bir tavır takınmadığını gösteren Türkiye yeni bir cumhuriyet olması ve 1929 yılında yaşanan büyük buhran nedeniyle istediği liberalleşmeyi yakalayamamıştır. 1950'li yıllarda liberalleşmeyi tekrar denemiş ancak 1950'lerin ortasında oluşan döviz krizi ile korumacı politikalara geri dönmüştür. 1960 yılından başlamak üzere devletçilik ön planda olmuş, beşer yıllık kalkınma planları ile ekonominin büyütülmesi uygulamasına gidilmiştir. Ancak sanayileşmenin finansmanında enflasyon oluşturan modellerin seçilmesi, sanayinin ihracata yönelememesi gibi nedenlerle Türkiye 1970'li yılların sonunda tekrar döviz krizi yaşamıştır. Bu krizle beraber 24 Ocak 1980 Kararları devreye sokulmuş ve tekrardan liberalleşmenin adımları atılmıştır. 24 Ocak Kararlarını da Ağustos 1989 tarihinde alınan 32 Saylı Türk Parası Kıymetini Koruma Hakkında Karar izlemiştir. Çıkartılan bu karar ile yabancıların Türkiye'de doğrudan ve dolaylı yatırım yapmaları serbest hale gelmiştir. Fon fazlası olanlar ile fon açığı olanların karşılaştığı piyasalara finansal piyasalar denilmektedir. Finansal sistem de finansal piyasalar, finansal araçlar, yasal-kurumsal düzenlemeler ile finansal aracıların tamamından oluşmaktadır. Bu çalışmada finansal sitemin genel yapısı, finansal serbestleşme, finansal gelişmişlik anlatılmaya çalışılmış ve finansal serbestleşme neticesinde serbest hale gelen sermaye hareketleri ile birlikte Türkiye'ye giriş yapan sıcak paranın ekonomik büyüme ve cari açık üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Sabit fiyatlarla harcama yöntemine göre hesaplanmış GSYH, USD olarak cari açık ve USD olarak oluşturulmuş sıcak para girişleri veri olarak kullanılmıştır. Seriler 1998Q1:2019Q2 dönemini kapsayan üçer aylık serilerdir. Serilere önce durağanlık testi uygulanmış ve birim kök sorunu olan seriler durağan hale getirilmiştir. Sonrasında VAR model kurulmuş, gecikme uzunluğu belirlenmiştir. Gecikme uzunluğu da belirlendikten sonra seriler arasında bir nedensellik olup olmadığı, nedensellik var ise bu nedenselliğin yönünün ne olduğunun belirlenmesi için Granger Nedensellik Testi uygulanmıştır. Sonuç olarak sıcak para girişlerinden GSYH'ya ve cari açığa doğru tek yönlü nedensellik olduğu tespit edilmiştir.
Having embraced liberal policies with the Izmir Economy Congress and thus demonstrating not having a negative stance towards foreign investment, Turkey did not achieve its intended liberalisation due to being a newly established republic and the Great Depression of 1929. The country tried liberalisation once more in the 1950s but, with the currency crisis of the mid-1950s, reverted to protectionist policies. From 1960 onwards, statism was on the forefront as the economy was expanded through five-year development plans. However, due to reasons such as choosing models in the financing of industrialisation that lead to inflation and the inability of the industry to orient itself towards export, Turkey experienced a currency crisis again at the end of the 1970s. With this crisis, the 24th January 1980 decisions were implemented and steps were taken once more towards liberalisation. The 24th January decisions were followed by Decree No. 32 on the Protection of the Value of the Turkish Currency in August 1989. With this decree, the foreigners were allowed to directly and indirectly invest in Turkey. The markets where those with fund surplus meet those with funding gap are called financial markets. The financial system consists of the totality of financial markets, financial instruments, legal-institutional arrangements, and financial intermediaries. This study seeks to explain the overall structure of the financial system, as well as financial liberalisation and financial development, and examines the impact of hot money, which entered Turkey following capital movements that became allowed as a result of financial liberalisation, on economic growth and current account deficit. GDP, calculated according to the expenditure approach at fixed prices, current account deficit in USD and hot money inflows generated in USD are used as data. The series are quarterly series covering 1998Q1:2019Q2 period. First, the stationary test was applied to the series and the series with unit root problem were made stationary. Afterwards, a VAR model was established and the lag length was determined. After determining the lag length, the Granger Causality Test was applied to see whether there was a causality between the series and if there was, what direction it had. As a result, it has been found that there is a unidimensional causality from hot money inflows to GDP and current account deficit.
Having embraced liberal policies with the Izmir Economy Congress and thus demonstrating not having a negative stance towards foreign investment, Turkey did not achieve its intended liberalisation due to being a newly established republic and the Great Depression of 1929. The country tried liberalisation once more in the 1950s but, with the currency crisis of the mid-1950s, reverted to protectionist policies. From 1960 onwards, statism was on the forefront as the economy was expanded through five-year development plans. However, due to reasons such as choosing models in the financing of industrialisation that lead to inflation and the inability of the industry to orient itself towards export, Turkey experienced a currency crisis again at the end of the 1970s. With this crisis, the 24th January 1980 decisions were implemented and steps were taken once more towards liberalisation. The 24th January decisions were followed by Decree No. 32 on the Protection of the Value of the Turkish Currency in August 1989. With this decree, the foreigners were allowed to directly and indirectly invest in Turkey. The markets where those with fund surplus meet those with funding gap are called financial markets. The financial system consists of the totality of financial markets, financial instruments, legal-institutional arrangements, and financial intermediaries. This study seeks to explain the overall structure of the financial system, as well as financial liberalisation and financial development, and examines the impact of hot money, which entered Turkey following capital movements that became allowed as a result of financial liberalisation, on economic growth and current account deficit. GDP, calculated according to the expenditure approach at fixed prices, current account deficit in USD and hot money inflows generated in USD are used as data. The series are quarterly series covering 1998Q1:2019Q2 period. First, the stationary test was applied to the series and the series with unit root problem were made stationary. Afterwards, a VAR model was established and the lag length was determined. After determining the lag length, the Granger Causality Test was applied to see whether there was a causality between the series and if there was, what direction it had. As a result, it has been found that there is a unidimensional causality from hot money inflows to GDP and current account deficit.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Ekonomi, Economics
