Statistical downscaling of GRACE TWSA estimates to a 1-km spatial resolution for a local-scale surveillance of flooding potential

Abstract

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) paved the way for large-scale monitoring of the hydrological extremes. However, local scale analysis is aslo challenging due to the coarse resolution of the GRACE estimates. The feasibility of the downscaled GRACE data for the flood monitoring in the Kizilirmak Basin (KB) in Turkiye is investigated in this study by integrating the GRACE and hydrological model outputs of a random forest approach. Results suggest that the TWSA, over the Asagi Kizilirmak Basin (AKB), is ascending with an annual rate of + 3.51mm/yr; while the Orta Kizilirmak Basin (OKB), Yukari Kizilirmak Basin (YKB), Delice Basin (DB), Develi Kapali Basin (DKB), and Seyfe Kapali Basin (SKB) showed descending trend respectively as -1.15mm/yr, -1.58mm/yr, -1.14mm/yr, -2.34mm/yr, and -1.31mm/yr. The hydrological status of the basin showed that in 2003, 2005, 2010-2013, and 2015-2016 periods the study area was prone to the inundation. Hence, by validating the Flood Potential Index (FPI) rates acquired from the downscaled GRACE data, it was shown that the best correlation coefficient (0.73) between FPI and streamflow (Q) is associated with the SKB. It is also concluded that the downscaled TWSA associated with the fine-resolution models depicts acceptable accuracy in determination of the flood potential at local scales.