Yazar "Orucu, Omer Kamil" seçeneğine göre listele

Listeleniyor 1 - 4 / 4
  • Küçük Resim
    Öğe
    Current and Future Potential Distribution Areas of Carphoborus mininius (Fabricius, 1798) in Turkey
    (Polish Acad Sciences, Inst Systematics Evolution Animals, 2020) Sen, Ismail; Sarıkaya, Oğuzhan; Orucu, Omer Kamil
    Our study aims to model the current and future (2041-2060 and 2081-2100) distribution areas of Carphoborus minimus (Fabricius, 1798) according to SSP2 and SSP5 emission scenarios. Current and future potential distribution areas of the species were predicted using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method and the MIROC6 climate change model. Finally, change analysis was performed to reveal the distributional changes between the present and future distribution ranges of the species. Our study has made it clear that the most impactful bioclimatic factors on the distribution of the species are temperature seasonality, isothermality, and precipitation of the driest quarter. Model results showed that the suitable distribution range for C. minimus is western and southern Anatolia. Models presented that the species will expand its distribution area through northern Anatolia in the 2050s and 2090s due to the changing ecological environment. In addition to that, the results of the change analysis showed that suitable distribution areas for the species will increase between 7% and 13.5% with time. Therefore, the species can become a new threat to the forests of Northern Anatolia. As a result, state forestry authorities should take precautions against this bark beetle species in the pine stands of northern Turkey in the future. Moreover, land-use plans should be developed to prevent the degradation of forest areas and to plan suitable trees for afforestation.
  • Küçük Resim
    Öğe
    MAXIMUM ENTROPY (MAXENT) MODELLING FOR PREDICTING THE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF PHLOEOSINUS AUBEI (PERRIS, 1855) (COL.: CURCULIONIDAE, SCOLYTINAE) AS RISING THREAT FOR CUPRESSUS SEMPERVIRENS L. TREES IN TURKEY
    (Health & Environment Assoc, 2019) Orucu, Omer Kamil; Sen, Ismail; Sarıkaya, Oğuzhan
    Cupressus sempervirens is one of the main elements of the cultural landscape of the Mediterranean coast. It can be preferred for the purpose of closing the unwanted views as aesthetic and decorative, reinforcing the beauty of the landscape, increasing the value of architectural works and historical works. Phloeosinus aubei (Perris, 1855) is an important bark beetle species (Col.: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) that attacks to the Cupressaceae family. It was determined as an important pest of cypress in some European countries. Also, it is observed that the expantion and epidemy potential of P. aubei has been increasing especially through to the Mediterranean region of Turkey on Cupressus sempervirens, Juniperus communis, J. excelsa and Thuja species in Turkey. This study was conducted to modelling the current and future (2050 and 2070) distributions of Phloeosinus aubei in Turkey according to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representational Concentration Pathways) climate change scenarios. Results showed that Phloeosinus aubei will expand its range towards Aegean region of Turkey.
  • Küçük Resim Yok
    Öğe
    Modelling the potential distribution of the endemic oak Quercus vulcanica Boiss. & Heldr. ex Kotschy in Turkey from the last interglacial to the future: From near threatened to endangered
    (Bogucki Wydawnictwo Naukowe, 2022) Sarikaya, Ayse Gul; Orucu, Omer Kamil; Sen, Ismail; Sarikaya, Oguzhan
    The aims of this study are to model past (LIG, LGM and Mid-Holocene), present and future (2050 and 2070) distributions of the Quercus vulcanica Boiss. & Heldr. ex Kotschy by using Maximum Entropy, and to predict suitable areas for the conservation of the species for future planning. MaxEnt distribution modeling was used to model distributions. Results for past bioclimatic conditions show that the distribution area of the species expanded and then contracted (LIG to LGM and LGM to HOL). The modelling shows that the distribution range of the species will be narrower in the future. The species will be facing extinction towards 2070. Therefore, the conservation status of the species should be evaluated according to the present findings. Although the largest population of the Q. vulcanica is found in Isparta and Afyonkarahisar Provinces located in Southwestern Turkey, this area will not be suitable for the growth and survival of the species in the future. For this reason, a new nature reserve area should be established in a more suitable climate.
  • Küçük Resim Yok
    Öğe
    THE CURRENT AND FUTURE COMPLIANCE AREAS OF KERMES OAK (QUERCUS COCCIFERA L.) UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE IN TURKEY
    (Parlar Scientific Publications (P S P), 2021) Babalik, Ahmet Alper; Sarikaya, Oguzhan; Orucu, Omer Kamil
    Modeling the niches and distributions of the species using machine learning technique has become one of the effective tools of conservation planning today. Analyzing how the main species of our country will be affected by climate change is of great importance for planning about these species. Quercus coccifera which is one of the important evergreen oak species in Turkey, is easily selected by goats and constitutes a high proportion of their diets. In this study, it is aimed to determine the potential distribution area of Quercus coccifera and how it will be affected by climate change. Bioclimate layers with a resolution of approximately 1 km(2) (30 arc seconds) obtained from the WorldClim database with the presence data of the species were cut within the specified limits and processed with the Maximum Entropy algorithm to determine the potential distribution area of the species in today's conditions. In addition, the potential distribution area in 2050 and 2070 was modeled according to the climate scenarios in RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5 in order to determine how the distribution area of the species will be affected by climate change. According to the CCSM4 climate change scenario, it is seen that there are losses in potential distribution areas of the species in the future. The result of the study shows that the current and future spread areas of Quercus coccifera, which is spread in a very limited area, will gradually narrow.