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Öğe Analysis of Dividend Yield Prediction Power of BIST Stock Prices: Evidence form Causality Tests(Mustafa Süleyman ÖZCAN, 2022) Camgöz, MevlütThe predictive power of dividend yield on BIST stock prices is examined in this study, adopting the Campbell and Shiller (1988a) model. Thus, it will be tested whether the dividend yield is a successful factor in predicting stock prices. The study has important implications for theorists, investors, and policymakers. First of all, revealing the effect of dividends on firm value will be decisive in determining dividend policies for managers. Once the predictive power of dividend yield is demonstrated, investors and portfolio managers can use the present value approach to determine whether a particular stock is overvalued or undervalued. In addition, knowing the effects of dividend payouts on market dynamics will guide the policy decisions of regulatory authorities. Toda-Yamamoto (1995) and Hatemi-J (2012) bootstrap asymmetric causality tests were adopted as a research methodology. Dividend yield and monthly closing price series of stocks that show continuity in the BIST 100 index and pay dividends continuously throughout the December 2011 – November 2021 period are used in the research. To the Toda-Yamamoto causality test findings, causal relationships from dividend yield to stock prices were determined in AGHOL, BIMAS, EGEEN, INDES, SARKY, SELEC, and TOASO stocks. Hatemi-J's (2012) bootstrap asymmetric causality test indicates fewer causality relationships compared to the Toda-Yamamoto test. A causal relationship could not be determined between the positive or negative components of dividend yield and price variables in many stocks. In the background of the mixed findings of the predictive power of the dividend yield, the structural breaks in the variables examined, the predictive power of the dividend yield changing over time, the weakening of the predictive power depending on the market conditions, the nonlinear relationship between the dividend yield and the price, the stock-based tests are more disadvantageous than the index-based tests, the estimation power of the dividend yield increases more when the annual frequency observations are used rather than the monthly frequency observations, the changes in the dividend policy of the companies and the share repurchase decisions may be weakened the estimation power of the dividend yield.Öğe Analysis of the Short and Long Term Asymmetric Effects of Global Uncertainty Factors on BIST Stock Prices via the NARDL Method(Maliye ve Finans Yazıları Yayıncılık Ltd. Şti., 2022) Camgöz, MevlütThe aim of this study is to examine the short and long-term asymmetric effects of global uncertainty factors on BIST stock prices, employing the NARDL (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag) method. Implied volatility indices, which measure economic, geopolitical, energy, and financial risks, are used to represent global uncertainty factors. Empirical findings show that there is a long-term asymmetric cointegration relationship between all stocks and global uncertainty factors under investigation. In both long-term and short-term analyzes, uncertainty factors affect stock prices in different directions and extents asymmetrically. The findings will figure an important role in making asset allocation, diversification, risk management, and trading decisions for investors and portfolio managers.Öğe Bitcoin as an Alternative Investment Instrument: Is a Superior Risk-Return Efficiency Achievable in International Stock Portfolios?(Sakarya University of Applied Sciences, 2021) Camgöz, MevlütBitcoin, which was first coined by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009 based on block chain technology, is today considered an investment tool rather than a medium of exchange. It is possible that the crypto assets, which has attracted mainly individual investors to date, will also be adopted by institutional investors in the coming period. In this context, one of the most important issues for institutional investors is the potential contribution of crypto assets to the risk-return efficiency of existing financial asset portfolios. This study aims to reveal the conditional correlation relationships of Bitcoin with developed and emerging stock markets, and to investigate the effect on the risk-return efficiency of stock portfolios when Bitcoin is added to a well-diversified international stock portfolio. As a result of the research, it is expected to reveal whether Bitcoin can be used as a financial investment asset, whether it offers diversification opportunities for international investors and its effect on the risk-return efficiency of international stock portfolios. The conditional correlations of G7 and BRICS+T countries' stock indices and Bitcoin prices are calculated using the BEKK-MGARCH method, and the effect of Bitcoin on the risk-return efficiency of stock portfolios is revealed by using mean-variance optimization. As a result, Bitcoin's low correlation relationship with stock markets provides an important diversification advantage. Portfolios containing Bitcoin have clearly been shown to have superior risk-return profile for international investors.Öğe THE EFFECT OF AFGAN IMMIGRANTS' SOCIOCULTURAL ADAPTATION ON JOB SATISFACTION: THE CASE OF BURSA PROVINCE(Uluslararası Mülteci Hakları Derneği, 2023) Haqyar, Ahmad Jawid; Camgöz, MevlütThe phenomenon of migration comes to the fore as an influential agenda in modern societies as well as in the historical process. In the past, this phenomenon, which was seen as migration from village to city in a national context, has gained an international dimension today. The negative effects of factors such as war and economy have caused the displacement of millions of people. Afghan migration to Turkey since the beginning of the 2000s is one of them. This study aims to reveal the effects of Afghan immigrants' sociocultural adaptation on job satisfaction. Minnesota Job Satisfaction and SCAS-R Sociocultural Adaptation Scales were used in the study. According to the findings, the increase in the sociocultural adaptation level of Afghan immigrants reduces their job satisfaction. The reason for the inverse relationship between the sociocultural adaptation of Afghan immigrants and their job satisfaction is that the expectations and goals of people with high sociocultural adaptation are more difficult to reach and less able to meet their goals compared to the expectations and goals of individuals with low sociocultural adaptation. As the sociocultural adaptation level of Afghan immigrants increases, the decrease in job satisfaction indicates that the immigrant mass will reach a lower level of satisfaction over time. This phenomenon will increase the desire of Afghan immigrants to change jobs and countries.Öğe Time Varying Causality Relationships Between Bonds and Stock Markets: Findings of the Hatemi-J Dynamic Causality Test(Muhasebe ve Finansman Öğretim Üyeleri Bilim ve Araştırma Derneği, 2022) Camgöz, MevlütEconomic developments and the uncertainty in risk factors can change the relationships between asset classes over time. Assuming that the relations between financial markets are of static in nature will result in erroneous investment and policy decisions, even if they are dynamic in reality. Focusing on the causality relationships between bond and stock markets, which has a central point of finance theory, this study aims to reveal whether there is symmetric and asymmetric causality relationship from bond market to the stock market, and if there is, whether this relationship changes over time. Dynamic symmetric and asymmetric causality tests developed by Hatemi-J (2021) are adopted as the analysis method. Dynamic symmetric and asymmetric causality test findings show that the causality relationship from bond market to the stock market changes over time. In conclusion, this study suggest that static models can lead to biased decisions such as hedging, diversification and asset allocation by demonstrating the structural changes and time dependency in the causal relationships between the bond and the stock market.
