Forecasting urban forest recreation areas in Turkey using machine learning methods

Abstract

Recreation is the process of revitalizing and renewing human existence through optional activities, serving as a broad description. It has prominently arisen as a reaction to personal requirements for stress reduction, especially in developed urban areas. Engaging in this recreational activity provides a way to utilize one's spare time, providing refreshment for both the physical and mental aspects, whether done alone or with others, in countryside or city environments. Urban forests are important leisure places within city environments. An expanded presence of urban forest places can greatly enhance the general well-being of society. The estimation of urban forest areas in the future may receive increased attention, leading to measures to extend current areas or prepare for future activities and services. We utilized official statistics from the years 2013 to 2021, sourced from the Republic of Turkey official website. Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry's General Directorate of Forestry. We used statistics that contained information about urban forests, classified as Type D recreational areas, to create a dataset. We performed provincial-level area projections for the year 2021. Using the KNIME platform, we used three different analysis techniques: linear regression analysis, gradient-boosted regression trees and artificial neural networks. It is seen that the results of linear regression and artificial neural networks are close to each other and give good results. The peak performance was attained using artificial neural networks, resulting in an R2 score of 0.99. This study differs from other similar projects by concentrating on calculating urban forest recreational spaces per province throughout Turkey, using data provided by government agencies. The accomplishments highlight the ability to make reliable predictions about future forest resources by using analogous forecasts in the upcoming years.