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Öğe From Low Engagement to High Engagement: Explaining Turkey's Changing Engagement in the Middle East during the JDP Period(Hale Sivgin, 2022) Akdogan, Ismail; Polat, FurkanWhy did Turkey shift its Middle East policy from soft power oriented approach to the security oriented one in the early zolos? While Turkey prioritized diplomatic, commercial and economic relations during the first decade of the 2000s, it has increasingly used military means to influence the Middle East since 2011. The primary objective of this study is to ascertain the reasons behind this widely debated question in Turkish foreign policy literature. Unlike existing explanations, the main argument of the study is that the U.S. grand strategy towards Middle East appears as the most important causal factor shaping the nature of Turkey's engagement in its region.Öğe From Low Engagement to High Engagement: Explaining Turkey’s Changing Engagement in the Middle East during the JDP Period(Hale Fatma ŞIVGIN, 2022) Akdoğan, İsmail; Polat, FurkanWhy did Turkey shift its Middle East policy from soft power oriented approach to the security oriented one in the early 2010s? While Turkey prioritized diplomatic, commercial and economic relations during the first decade of the 2000s, it has increasingly used military means to influence the Middle East since 2011. The primary objective of this study is to ascertain the reasons behind this widely debated question in Turkish foreign policy literature. Unlike existing explanations, the main argument of the study is that the U.S. grand strategy towards Middle East appears as the most important causal factor shaping the nature of Turkey’s engagement in its region.Öğe HOW ARMED GROUPS SURVIVE IN FAILED STATES: EVIDENCE FROM LIBYA(Estonian Acad Publishers, 2024) Polat, FurkanArmed groups generally emerge in failed states that do not have a monopoly on the use of force. These states with more than one power center can be characterized as anarchic systems. In such an environment, a shift in the balance of power in favor of an armed group poses an existential threat to the security of others. This study examines how armed groups respond to shifts in the balance of power to maintain their security in an anarchic system. By examining the case of Libya, the study argues that armed groups tend to employ strategies for deterring the aggressor to restore the balance of power.Öğe 'Infernal Cycle': Why War and Peace Repeat Themselves in Libya(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2025) Polat, FurkanAfter the fall of the Gaddafi regime, Libya has experienced recurring periods of war and peace. War between armed groups in 2014 and 2019 gave way to periods of relative stability in which peace talks were on the table. This study addresses the question of why there is a cycle between periods of war and peace in Libya. Contrary to the arguments of the war legacy, anarchy, bad governance and the nature of peace agreements in the existing literature, it examines the cycle of war and peace in this specific case through the logic of classical balance of power theory, focusing on the power struggle between actors. In this context, the study argues that shifts in the balance of power between armed groups lead to war, while the reestablishment of the balance leads to peace.Öğe İsrail Neden İran’a Saldırdı: Kolay Zafer Yanılgısı(Ahmet YEŞİL, 2025) Polat, Furkan7 Ekim olaylarının ardından İsrail, komşu ülkeleri de kapsayan geniş bir bölgede saldırgan davranışlar sergilemeye başladı. Bu politikanın bir davamı olarak, Tahran’ın nükleer programına ve Ayetullah rejiminin varlığına son vermeyi amaçlayan İsrail, 13 Haziran’da İran’a saldırdı. Bölgesel istikrarı baltalayan bu davranışları doğal olarak İsrail neden saldırgan bir politika izliyor sorusunu ortaya çıkarıyor. Bu soruyu İsrail-İran savaşı özelinde cevaplayan bu çalışma, İsrailli karar alıcıların rakipleriyle mücadelelerinde kolay zafer elde edeceklerine dair beklentilerinin saldırgan davranışlara sebep olduğunu iddia ediyor. Askeri güç dengesi, irade dengesi ve müttefiklerinin nispi gücü ve bağlılığına dair hesaplamalarda yapılan iyimser hatalar başta İran olmak üzere bölgedeki diğer ülkelere yönelik saldırganlığı tetikleyen temel faktörlerdir. Karar alıcıların bu faktörler açısından İsrail’in rakiplerine nazaran avantajlı olduğunu düşünmeleri savaşları kazanacaklarına dair beklentilerini körüklüyor. Dolayısıyla bölgede istikrarsızlığı derinleştiren bu davranışların son bulması ve savaş olasılığının azalması için diğer aktörlerin etkin bir caydırıcılık ortaya koyması gerekiyor.
