İklim değişikliği dirençlilik senaryosu: Artan sel riski çerçevesinde Bursa alan çalışması
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Dosyalar
Tarih
2023
Yazarlar
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Yayıncı
Bursa Teknik Üniversitesi, Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Sanayileşme ile birlikte artan iklim değişikliğinin etkisi giderek daha fazla hissedilmektedir. Küresel bir sorun olan iklim değişikliğinin kuraklık, sel, fırtına vb. gibi afetlerin artmasında büyük rolü vardır. Kentler iklim değişikliği etkilerinin sıklıkla görüldüğü ve afetlerin yaşandığı yerler haline gelmiştir. Özellikle hızlı kentleşmenin sonucu olan plansız yapılaşma, iklim değişikliği sonucunda artan afetlerin boyutunun artmasına neden olmaktadır. İklim değişikliğinin kentlerdeki etkilerine ve azaltım araştırmalarına literatürde daha çok yer verilmelidir. Literatürde özellikle ülkemizde iklim değişikliği ve sel riski konusunda yapılmış çalışmaların artırılmasına ve geliştirilmesine ihtiyaç vardır. Dünyada ve Türkiye'deki literatür araştırılmış olup ayrıca ülkelerin azaltım politikaları ve uygulamaları hakkında da araştırmalara yer verilmiştir. Tez kapsamında, iklim değişikliğinin arttırdığı sel felaketleri konusu ve Bursa kentinde iklim değişikliği dirençlilik senaryosu çalışılmıştır. Kentte yaşanan ani yağışlar kentteki geçirimsiz yüzeylerin fazla olması sebebiyle yüzey akışına geçmekte ve sel felaketlerine neden olmaktadır. İklim değişikliğinin sel etkisine karşı kentlerde dirençliliğe yönelik planlamalar yapılmalıdır. Bu çalışmanın amacı Bursa kenti için seçilen bir alanda mevcut sel riski analizi yapılması, riskli bölgeler için dirençlilik senaryo önerileri geliştirilmesi ve dirençlilik senaryolarının da analize dahil edilerek senaryoların sel riskini azaltma durumunun değerlendirilmesidir. Çalışma kapsamında iklim değişikliğinin artırdığı sel riski hakkında dünyadan, Türkiye'den ve Bursa kentinden örnekler verilmiş ve kentsel uygulamalar hakkında literatür araştırmasına yer verilmiştir. Bursa kentinde seçilen alan için analitik hiyerarşi süreci yöntemi kullanılmış ve coğrafi bilgi sistemi programı olan ArcGIS'te ağırlıklı sel riski analizi yapılmıştır. Risk analizi sonucunda Bursa kentinde 19 mahalleyi kapsayan alanda, riskli çıkan bölgeler için senaryo önerileri geliştirilmiştir. Senaryo önerileri (yeşil drenaj, kentsel yeşil alan ve geçirimli zemin, sarnıç) ArcGIS programında sayısallaştırılmış ve senaryo sonrası risk analizi yapılmıştır. Risk analizi sonrasında mahallelerdeki risk durumları tekrar değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuç olarak risk değerlendirmesinde, coğrafi faktörlerin yanında kentsel alandaki yapılaşmanın ve zemin geçirimlilik özelliğinin sel riskine etkisi okunabilmektedir. Bursa'da seçilen alan için eğim faktörünün etkili olduğu, fakat senaryo önerileri ile sel riskinde etkili bir azaltım sağlanabileceği görülmüştür.
The impact of climate change, which has increased with industrialization, is being felt more and more. Climate change, which is a global problem, has a great role in the increase of disasters such as drought, flood and storm. Cities have become places where the effects of climate change are frequently seen and disasters are experienced. Especially unplanned construction, which is the result of rapid urbanization, causes an increase in the size of disasters that increase as a result of climate change. The effects of climate change on cities and reduction studies should be given more space in the literature. There is a need to increase and develop studies on climate change and flood risk in the literature, especially in our country. The literature in the world and in Turkey has been researched and also researches on the reduction policies and practices of countries are included. Within the scope of the thesis, the subject of flood disasters increased by climate change and the climate change resilience scenario in the city of Bursa were studied. Sudden precipitation in the city passes to the surface flow and causes flood disasters due to the excess of impermeable surfaces in the city. Plans should be made for resilience in cities against the flood effects of climate change. The aim of this study is to analyze the current flood risk in a selected area for the city of Bursa, to develop resilience scenario suggestions for risky regions and to evaluate the flood risk reduction status of the scenarios by including resilience scenarios in the analysis. Within the scope of the study, examples from the world, Turkey and the city of Bursa about the flood risk increased by climate change are given and a literature review about urban practices is included. Analytical hierarchy process method was used for the selected area in Bursa city and weighted flood risk analysis was performed in ArcGIS, a geographic information system program. As a result of the risk analysis, scenario suggestions were developed for the risky regions in the area covering 19 neighborhoods in the city of Bursa. Scenario suggestions (green drainage, urban green area and permeable surface, cistern) were digitized in the ArcGIS program and risk analysis was made after the scenario. After the risk analysis, the risk situations in the neighborhoods were re-evaluated. As a result, in the risk assessment, besides the geographical factors, the effect of the construction in the urban area and the ground permeability feature on the flood risk can be read. It has been observed that the slope factor is effective for the selected area in Bursa, but an effective reduction in flood risk can be achieved with scenario suggestions.
The impact of climate change, which has increased with industrialization, is being felt more and more. Climate change, which is a global problem, has a great role in the increase of disasters such as drought, flood and storm. Cities have become places where the effects of climate change are frequently seen and disasters are experienced. Especially unplanned construction, which is the result of rapid urbanization, causes an increase in the size of disasters that increase as a result of climate change. The effects of climate change on cities and reduction studies should be given more space in the literature. There is a need to increase and develop studies on climate change and flood risk in the literature, especially in our country. The literature in the world and in Turkey has been researched and also researches on the reduction policies and practices of countries are included. Within the scope of the thesis, the subject of flood disasters increased by climate change and the climate change resilience scenario in the city of Bursa were studied. Sudden precipitation in the city passes to the surface flow and causes flood disasters due to the excess of impermeable surfaces in the city. Plans should be made for resilience in cities against the flood effects of climate change. The aim of this study is to analyze the current flood risk in a selected area for the city of Bursa, to develop resilience scenario suggestions for risky regions and to evaluate the flood risk reduction status of the scenarios by including resilience scenarios in the analysis. Within the scope of the study, examples from the world, Turkey and the city of Bursa about the flood risk increased by climate change are given and a literature review about urban practices is included. Analytical hierarchy process method was used for the selected area in Bursa city and weighted flood risk analysis was performed in ArcGIS, a geographic information system program. As a result of the risk analysis, scenario suggestions were developed for the risky regions in the area covering 19 neighborhoods in the city of Bursa. Scenario suggestions (green drainage, urban green area and permeable surface, cistern) were digitized in the ArcGIS program and risk analysis was made after the scenario. After the risk analysis, the risk situations in the neighborhoods were re-evaluated. As a result, in the risk assessment, besides the geographical factors, the effect of the construction in the urban area and the ground permeability feature on the flood risk can be read. It has been observed that the slope factor is effective for the selected area in Bursa, but an effective reduction in flood risk can be achieved with scenario suggestions.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Mimarlık, Architecture, Peyzaj Mimarlığı, Landscape Architecture, Şehircilik ve Bölge Planlama, Urban and Regional Planning
